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The Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East |
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| Uploaded on Monday 21 September, 2015 to the world order |
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| P5+1 countries and Iran: The Middle East post NPT agreement |
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The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is a deal brokered on 14 July, 2015 between the P5+1 group and Iran, with the stated aim of rolling back parts of Iran's nuclear programme and to widen its path to the bomb. This deal, albeit imperfect, binds Iran to open its nuclear sites up to weapons inspections, with certain loopholes; namely, Iran's Parchin military base, where Iran is suspected of conducting experiments using the components necessary to build a nuclear weapon, is not up for inspections by the IAEA, leaving Iran free to oversee this nuclear facility void of a third party. Furthermore, the IAEA must grant Iran, under the deal, a 24 days notice period before it can commence its inspections, thus enabling Iran to shift fissile material elsewhere to conceal its activities.
The Clinton Administration once did a deal with North Korea, and the rest on that is history. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action could potentially have adverse effects in the long term. Countries in the region are keeping a watchful eye on developments, and could be drawn to proliferation to balance out any eventuality of Iran getting to the bomb, which is what this deal was put on the table to prevent. The deal runs out in fifteen years time from when it was initiated. What happens after that is inconclusive. Order could be restored if Iran keep its end of the bargain, but, should Iran flout the deal in defiance, the consequences of such action could constitute a prelude to war. |
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